After the brief Hogaak scare that we’ll all pretend never happened, Modern is starting to settle into a new place ahead of upcoming high-profile tournaments. Here’s a rundown of what we’re likely to see there:
Modern Humans
| Creatures (37) 4 Champion of the Parish 3 Kitesail Freebooter 4 Mantis Rider 4 Meddling Mage 4 Noble Hierarch 4 Phantasmal Image 4 Reflector Mage 2 Restoration Angel 4 Thalia’s Lieutenant 4 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben Spells (4) 4 Aether Vial | Lands (19) 4 Ancient Ziggurat 4 Cavern of Souls 4 Horizon Canopy 1 Plains 1 Seachrome Coast 4 Unclaimed Territory 1 Waterlogged Grove Sideboard (15) 3 Auriok Champion 2 Deputy of Detention 1 Dismember 2 Gaddock Teeg 1 Militia Bugler 2 Phyrexian Revoker 4 Yixlid Jailer |
Aside from a brief ebb in popularity last year, Humans has been a fixture of Modern for a year and a half. As a disruptive, fast aggro deck capable of absurd draws, it provides a perfect litmus test for any new deck hoping to break into Modern. Despite the upheaval resulting from War of the Spark, Modern Horizons, and Magic 2020, Humans remains unchanged and unchallenged at the top of the format. It is poised to defend its Modern Mythic Championship title in Barcelona this weekend.
New releases may have refined other decks, but often in ways that made them worse against Humans. Hogaak has a harder time in the matchup than traditional Dredge. Eldrazi Tron always struggled with Humans while its larger, greener counterpart did not. The planeswalkers and Force of Negation in the blue control decks can look downright embarrassing against a rabble of rowdy rebels.
Humans’ most important matchup improved a lot too:
Modern Izzet Phoenix
| Creatures (10) 4 Thing in the Ice 4 Arclight Phoenix 2 Crackling Drake Spells (32) 4 Faithless Looting 1 Flame Slash 2 Gut Shot 4 Lightning Bolt 4 Serum Visions 4 Sleight of Hand 4 Thought Scour 1 Echoing Truth 2 Finale of Promise 4 Manamorphose 2 Pyromancer Ascension | Lands (18) 1 Fiery Islet 1 Flooded Strand 3 Island 1 Mountain 1 Polluted Delta 4 Scalding Tarn 4 Spirebluff Canal 3 Steam Vents Sideboard (15) 1 Flame Slash 1 Spell Pierce 2 Anger of the Gods 2 Aria of Flame 1 Beacon Bolt 2 Blood Moon 2 Force of Negation 1 Jace, the Mind Sculptor 3 Ravenous Trap |
A few months ago Izzet Phoenix was dominant in Modern. These days it’s a good deck—perhaps still the best—in a format that has caught up to it. Every deck has a reasonable plan for Phoenix; its play patterns no longer catch anyone off guard. The deck picked up useful tools in recent sets: Magmatic Sinkhole, an excellent answer to the larger creatures and planeswalkers that evade the usual burn suite; and Aria of Flame, a secondary win condition that doesn’t rely on the graveyard or the combat step and gets out of control quickly.
Unfortunately, these changes made the already close Humans matchup a fair bit worse. When Phoenix still had a flurry of Gut Shots and Lightning Axes with Crackling Drake as a secondary threat, it could claim the matchup was in its favor. Now the deck often relies on drawing at least one Lightning Bolt early or flipping Thing in the Ice through Reflector Mage and Deputy of Detention to stay afloat.
Pyromancer Ascension was often awkward in the matchup but promised a way to race a fast but disruption-light draw. Aria of Flame may be better elsewhere but is considerably worse here. The move to Surgical Extraction as the “free” spell of choice for the mirror and Dredge hurts too. I expect successful Phoenix players in Barcelona and Columbus to roll back some of these changes or have a well stocked sideboard for the matchup if it turns out to be as popular as advertised.
The London mulligan also weakened one of Phoenix’s biggest selling points. Most decks in Modern have a high ceiling but a low floor—their best draws are terrifying but their average draws will often miss a piece or be susceptible to disruption. Phoenix was one of the most consistent decks in the format by some metrics because of its unrivalled access to card filtering, which also allowed it to reliably find the high-impact sideboard cards that define so many games of Modern. This new rule reduces the variance in other decks, removing the comparative advantage held by Phoenix and forcing it to field a strong draw of its own to compete.
That said, the deck has stayed at the top for a reason and shows no signs of slowing down. Players who have played Phoenix for months can happily sleeve it up again; players desperately scrambling for an alternative will come back to it when their search fails.
Modern Eldrazi Tron
| Creatures (15) 3 Walking Ballista 4 Matter Reshaper 4 Reality Smasher 4 Thought-Knot Seer Planeswalkers (6) 4 Karn, the Great Creator 2 Ugin, the Ineffable Spells (15) 4 Chalice of the Void 4 Expedition Map 2 Mind Stone 3 Dismember 2 All Is Dust | Lands (24) 2 Wastes 2 Blast Zone 1 Cavern of Souls 4 Eldrazi Temple 2 Ghost Quarter 4 Urza’s Mine 4 Urza’s Power Plant 4 Urza’s Tower 1 Gemstone Caverns Sideboard (14) 1 Crucible of Worlds 1 Ensnaring Bridge 1 Grafdigger’s Cage 1 Liquimetal Coating 1 Mycosynth Lattice 1 Mystic Forge 1 Tormod’s Crypt 1 Trinisphere 1 Walking Ballista 3 Leyline of the Void 2 Spatial Contortion |
Only a few years after Eldrazi Winter, it feels odd to report that the Eldrazi are mostly an afterthought in the deck now. When Eldrazi Tron is good, it’s usually because Chalice of the Void is good—the joke that the deck is “Chalice plus 56 other cards” isn’t far from the truth. The key to the deck’s success is making enough other slots into “Chalices.” Karn, the Great Creator is a perfect example, single-handedly neutering many decks and remaining a potent threat against others. Leyline of the Void is still the best sideboard card in the format when it’s strong, and so on.
Chalice happens to be quite strong right now. It’s a nightmare for Izzet Phoenix, its mono-red cousin, and Burn decks of all stripes as well as the format’s premiere graveyard deck now that Hogaak is edging out Dredge. It tends to be a good hedge against the fringe combo decks that could break out this weekend: Cheerios, Infect, Neoform, and many more. Matter Reshaper happens to be as weak as always, but what can you do (other than cut it from your deck, which is something I’d actually suggest trying)?
Modern Tron
| Creatures (6) 3 Walking Ballista 2 Wurmcoil Engine 1 Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger Planeswalkers (9) 4 Karn Liberated 3 Karn, the Great Creator 2 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon Spells (26) 4 Chromatic Sphere 4 Chromatic Star 4 Expedition Map 3 Oblivion Stone 3 Relic of Progenitus 4 Ancient Stirrings 4 Sylvan Scrying | Lands (19) 4 Forest 1 Blast Zone 1 Ghost Quarter 1 Sanctum of Ugin 4 Urza’s Mine 4 Urza’s Power Plant 4 Urza’s Tower Sideboard (15) 1 Crucible of Worlds 1 Ensnaring Bridge 1 Grafdigger’s Cage 1 Liquimetal Coating 1 Mycosynth Lattice 1 Sorcerous Spyglass 1 Torpor Orb 1 Trinisphere 2 Thragtusk 3 Nature’s Claim 2 Spatial Contortion |
After a strong performance in the last Mythic Championship and with decks like Jund and UW Control surging in popularity, the time is right for the elder Karn to remind people just what liberation feels like.
Although the deck was the talk of the town going into London and put several players into the Top 8 (and another out of it), its conversion rate and win percentage on Day 2 was quite poor. That was consistent with its performance in several other large Modern tournaments around that time. Whither the London mulligan bounce? Tron has enjoyed a place at the table in Modern longer than any other deck, but it may now be showing its age.
One tool the deck has now that it didn’t then is Karn, the Great Creator. Previously, a Tron player who assembled Tron ASAP could still lose because they didn’t have the right payoff; the new Karn is a Swiss Army Knife that threatens to find the perfect tool against any opponent. It also gives you a viable plan in games where you can’t find or keep Tron, making cards like Damping Sphere or Alpine Moon less effective.
Modern Dredge
| Creatures (19) 4 Bloodghast 3 Prized Amalgam 4 Narcomoeba 1 Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis 4 Stinkweed Imp 3 Golgari Thug Spells (22) 4 Creeping Chill 2 Conflagrate 4 Faithless Looting 4 Cathartic Reunion 4 Life from the Loam 4 Shriekhorn | Lands (19) 2 Mountain 3 Copperline Gorge 2 Stomping Ground 2 Blood Crypt 1 Gemstone Mine 1 Forgotten Cave 1 Blast Zone 3 Bloodstained Mire 2 Scalding Tarn 2 Wooded Foothills Sideboard (15) 4 Nature’s Claim 2 Ancient Grudge 1 Abrupt Decay 2 Thoughtseize 1 Leyline of Sanctity 3 Lightning Axe 1 Darkblast 1 Shenanigans |
Dredge was popular in London and is always good when people act like they forgot about Dredge. For a while, it looked like Modern was devolving into a battle between Phoenix and Dredge over the right to be called the best Faithless Looting deck. Another big beneficiary of the London mulligan rule, Dredge is now even more likely to have its busted starts and be able to find and keep hands with counterplay to hate cards in sideboarded games.
However, it’s now sharing the graveyard with the roommate from hell:
Modern Hogaak Vine
| Creatures (33) 4 Bloodghast 3 Carrion Feeder 3 Golgari Thug 4 Gravecrawler 4 Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis 3 Insolent Neonate 4 Satyr Wayfinder 4 Stitcher’s Supplier 4 Vengevine Spells (9) 1 Claim // Fame 4 Faithless Looting 1 Darkblast 3 Lightning Axe | Lands (18) 3 Blackcleave Cliffs 2 Blood Crypt 2 Bloodstained Mire 2 Gemstone Mine 2 Marsh Flats 2 Overgrown Tomb 2 Polluted Delta 1 Swamp 2 Verdant Catacombs Sideboard (15) 2 Assassin’s Trophy 1 Fatal Push 1 Force of Vigor 4 Leyline of the Void 1 Nature’s Claim 1 Plague Engineer 1 Shenanigans 4 Thoughtseize |
Rumors of Hogaak’s death were accurate, but it turns out you can just cast it again! With Modern’s mad scientist Piotr Glogowski posting an undefeated run in last week’s MTGO Modern Challenge with Hogaak, the deck is on the forefront of everyone’s mind going into the Mythic Championship. It’s a little futile to ask whether the deck is better than Dredge as they each have distinct play patterns and mostly struggle with different cards and matchups. I imagine people will be scared enough—or wise enough—to sidestep that question by playing cards like Rest in Peace or Leyline of the Void that threaten to flatten both.
Modern Grixis Urza
This is the big unknown quantity of the format. Prison decks incorporating the Thopter Foundry plus Sword of the Meek combo have been around for a few months, but this is a more proactive toolbox deck with Urza offering both a backdoor infinite combo and a built-in backup plan. With access to the whole color pie, a diverse array of tools, and no clear consensus on how to build the deck or its position in the format, it’s hard to predict how well Urza will do or what the right Urza deck might look like. The person who cracks the code can take their tournament by storm.
Modern Burn
| Creatures (13) 4 Goblin Guide 1 Grim Lavamancer 4 Monastery Swiftspear 4 Eidolon of the Great Revel Spells (28) 4 Boros Charm 4 Lightning Bolt 4 Lightning Helix 4 Searing Blaze 4 Lava Spike 4 Rift Bolt 4 Skewer the Critics | Lands (19) 3 Mountain 1 Arid Mesa 3 Bloodstained Mire 3 Inspiring Vantage 2 Sacred Foundry 4 Sunbaked Canyon 3 Wooded Foothills Sideboard (15) 3 Rest in Peace 3 Path to Exile 2 Searing Blood 2 Skullcrack 3 Smash to Smithereens 2 Exquisite Firecraft |
There’s not much to say here: Burn is a constant presence in Modern and a major constraint on any deck that’s too slow or cumbersome. Although its cousin Mono Red Phoenix has shared its spotlight recently, I strongly believe that Burn is the better deck and the one you are more likely to see at the top tables this weekend. In particular, the shift from Dredge to Hogaak is excellent news for Burn (though the sudden rise in Eldrazi Tron may be enough to dampen those spirits).
Modern Azorius Control
There are people who play Celestial Colonnade in every Modern tournament. Now may be one of the two times a day when that broken clock is right. The London mulligan is a big deal here. It’s easy to look solely at how it improves the best draws of proactive decks, but it also allows reactive decks to find their sideboard haymakers and cash in the answers that are meant for different questions. Soorani’s list here is a fairly classic UW Control list similar to his weapon of choice for London, but there is a lot of room for customization in this archetype. For example, Daniel Fournier is enjoying success with a tap-out UW deck with a full roster of planeswalkers backed up by Force of Negation.
Modern Jund
| Creatures (13) 2 Dark Confidant 2 Scavenging Ooze 4 Tarmogoyf 1 Plague Engineer 4 Bloodbraid Elf Planeswalkers (8) 4 Wrenn and Six 4 Liliana of the Veil Spells (15) 2 Fatal Push 4 Inquisition of Kozilek 4 Lightning Bolt 2 Thoughtseize 1 Assassin’s Trophy 1 Kolaghan’s Command 1 Maelstrom Pulse | Lands (24) 2 Barren Moor 2 Blackcleave Cliffs 1 Blood Crypt 2 Bloodstained Mire 1 Blooming Marsh 2 Forest 1 Mountain 2 Nurturing Peatland 2 Overgrown Tomb 2 Raging Ravine 1 Stomping Ground 2 Swamp 4 Verdant Catacombs Sideboard (15) 1 Engineered Explosives 1 Grafdigger’s Cage 3 Nihil Spellbomb 2 Ancient Grudge 2 Collective Brutality 1 Anger of the Gods 3 Fulminator Mage 1 Plague Engineer 1 Tireless Tracker |
Like Celestial Colonnade, there are people who take any excuse to play Raging Ravine. Jund has also seen improvements across the board with Modern Horizons. Wrenn and Six offers a continuous source of card advantage that’s less fragile than Dark Confidant and redundant removal against creature-heavy decks. Plague Engineer covers the decks that try to fight through one-for-one removal by going fast and wide, and Seasoned Pyromancer lets Jund trade dead discard and removal spells for new tools while developing its board. Most of Jund’s matchups are still close, but these toys move the needle in its favor.
One look at a MTGO 5-0 deck dump or random paper tournament reveals dozens of other decks to be aware of, but these are the format’s heavy hitters as of right now. If you’re preparing to battle this weekend—or to watch some high-stakes Modern in the comfort of your own home—this is what you can expect to see.