It’s been 30 days since Modern Masters was released on June 7th and we can now take a look at where the prices have moved to see how the first black-bordered reprint set since 10th Edition, and the first of it’s kind since Chronicles, managed in the secondary market and how it affected original printings of cards. The short story was as many people predicted. The value of Modern Masters cards dropped rapidly while the value of original printings held strong. This trend can be seen across many cards, but specifically I am going to take a look at all 15 Mythic Rares, 13 of the Rares which were all worth over $10 at the time of release, and 18 of the commons and uncommons that were all worth over one dollar 30 days ago. The prices come from TCGPlayer’s mid-price.
Before we get into the predictable trends we’re going to look at the only two cards in this data pool that decided to be different. Those cards, perhaps predictably, are Tarmogoyf and Dark Confidant. Both cards have increased by almost 25%, with Tarmogoyf rising from $117.50 all the way to $144.19 and Dark Confidant rising from $56.44 to an amazing $70.47. This rise in demand is almost inexplicable. There hasn’t been a Modern Constructed event since May until this weekend’s Grand Prix in Kansas City, but the value has climbed steadily for the past month. The only rational explanation is that Modern Masters made the Modern format more desirable, and thus two of the most expensive chase cards in the format rose in value sharply.
But if this were the case we should see the same trend in other Modern staples. For cards reprinted in Modern Masters, their reprint value has gone down while their original value has remained the same. Even cards that weren’t reprinted and remain scarce have held their value. I checked a few cards including Thoughtseize and fetch lands from Zendikar and their value is relatively unchanged over the same time period. Perhaps speculation of Thoughtseize being reprinted in Theros would keep it’s value down, but not if there was some reason for it to be acquired ASAP as Tarmogoyf and Dark Confidant seem to be handled. For now we’re left with little option but to speculate on why Tarmogoyf and Dark Confidant are not following the same trend as the rest of Modern Masters
The rest of the movement was all in the negative direction. Most of the Mythic Rares dropped by several dollars with Kiki-Jiki dropping the most by value (-$3.61) and Yosei losing the most by percentage (-24.32%). The rares that were once worth $10 or more fared no better. Doubling Season plummeted by a whopping -$6.23 but Kira, Great-Glass Spinner was the biggest loser seeing 36.44% of her value vanish. The commons and uncommons, again predictably, crashed in value as well. Path to Exile has fared the best, losing only 8.62% ($0.47 ) of value. Lava Spike lost more than 70% of its value. Most cards lost between 20% and 40% of their value.
Is this the final valuation of Modern Masters reprints? Likely not. With a Modern PTQ season getting underway soon, demand for these cards will come back up. While I don’t expect them to return to the value of their original counterparts, they should gain some short term value for sure. Where they will stabilize in the long-term is anyone’s guess, but it seems safe to say that they will end up between 20% and 50%, on average, lower than the original printings.
Unless we’re talking about Dark Confidant and Tarmogoyf, in which case it seems that the sky is the limit.
Not too much exciting this week in the rankings with only one event in the books (GP Kansas City). Thanks to the new Delta column we can see who the biggest movers were this week. Reid Duke and Brian Kibler swapped spots in the top ten, but the biggest changes came further down the line. Luis Scott-Vargas jumped up to 14th overall while Ali Aintrazi dropped five spaces to 44th. The biggest gain came from Matthias Hunt who climbed 13 spots in the standings while Ben Friedman posted the biggest loss, sliding 12 rungs down.
With two weeks off from the tour for the Magic 2014 prerelease and release weekends we won’t have any new results until July 28th with Grand Prix Calgary and Grand Prix Rimini. We’re really looking forward into seeing how these rankings shake out heading towards the Magic Championship in Amsterdam at the end of the month!
The Quick Hits
- Jesse Snyder looks at the Legend rule changes from a Vorthos perspective. I’m glad he waited for the dust to settle before chiming in. [Vorthos is Magic]
- Here’s an interesting piece on how to train your mind for competitive events. Spoiler: Sugar is not your best friend. [StarCityGames]
- Another non-tournament report from Grand Prix Woodstock. Seriously, what happens in Vegas is apparently the last thing to stay there. [Moments]
- Jason Alt is leaving eBay and I’m inclined to do the same for fear of running into the same shitty policies. [Jason’s Archives]
- Some great thoughts on Pro Tour Myths from Tour mainstay (and #22 ranked in the world) Conley Woods. [TCGPlayer]
- Does the new Chandra suck? It’s a red ‘walker, so probably. [Carrie On] [TCGPlayer] [LegitMTG] [Channel-Fireball]
- It’s too bad I can’t play Magic on my lunch break at work. Maybe I’d have never quit the game. [Gathering Magic]
- Heather Lafferty walks us through her rad cosplay of Nissa Revane. [LegitMTG]
- A brief history of Canadian National Championships (not ice hockey I swear). [Gathering Magic]
- It’s Hall of Fame season! Too bad there isn’t an actual Hall of Fame. [Channel Fireball] [Gathering Magic]
- All the info you need on MTG at SDCC is right here! [Magic Arcana]
Wallpaper of the Week
I get that a lot of folks love angels but I never understood the appeal. First of all, don’t even get me started on the fact that all the angels in Magic are female so that they can be pretty. Beauty is not about long hair, a flaming sword and a set of wings. Archangel of Thune is fine as far as angels go, but it’s pretty generic if you asked me. At least it isn’t overly misogynistic, so there’s that I guess. She seems very sad to be doing whatever it is she’s about to do, and I suspect she isn’t slicing vegetables with that sword.
Grade: B
The Week Ahead
I’ll be out of town next weekend as I head to Carlisle, PA to indulge in one of my other passions, classic muscle cars. I’ll be missing the Magic 2014 prerelease which is a huge tragedy. Or not, since core sets are usually awful. There are no major Magic tournaments for the next two weekends as we all get intimately reacquainted with slivers. Yay slivers!
What We Learned is a weekly feature here at Hipsters of the Coast written by former amateur Magic Player Rich Stein, who came really close to making day two of a Grand Prix on several occasions. The goal is to take some of the events and articles polluting the Magic world, strip out the chaff (tournament reports, game theory, economics) and give you our superior opinion. Complaints are encouraged.