Welcome to the first quarterly installment of my breakdown of the Legacy metagame (based on data gathered from Star City Games’ Legacy Open Series). With the final Open of the first invitational season in the books, I figure that this is as good a time as any to reflect on what the meta looks like, and quarterly seems like a meaningful amount of time to wait between these types of articles, so expect the next meta report in June/July. For those unfamiliar with my methodology, here are links to other articles where I explained this exercise. Below is a copy paste of the “cliff-notes” version:
“We will assign each archetype two points for finishing 9th-16th, three points for 5th-8th, four points for 3rd-4th, five points for 2nd, and six points for 1st, then average out the data from the eight 32 events to arrive at what the expected metagame should look like.”
The method described above was developed by Frank Karsten for analyzing the “winner’s circle” metagame. These results are meant to show the likeliness of seeing a given archetype at the top tables. I don’t want to mislead anyone into thinking that they can safely forget about the plethora of decks that exist in this great format and assume that they will be playing against nothing but Delver and Show and Tell decks, because it is not uncommon to see some pretty wacky shit in the first couple of rounds (or the later rounds if you have fallen below x-3).
In addition to Karsten’s method, I added a time-weighted version. From my original article:
“I decided to set up my model to give 100% weight to the most recent event (3/23/2014) and a 50% weight to the furthest back event (12/15/2013), with a linear rate of decay.”
For our data, I aggregated the results from each SCG Legacy Open during the time period we’re looking at, as well as the Legacy Championships (for which I only have top eight data) and the Grand Prix.
Ok, let’s see the results!
| Archetype | K-Score | T-Score | T/K | |
| 1 | UWR Delver | 13.19% | 12.76% | 0.9670 |
| 2 | Punishing Jund | 6.60% | 7.28% | 1.1034 |
| 3 | RUG Delver | 5.74% | 4.99% | 0.8688 |
| 3 | Esper Deathblade | 5.74% | 5.75% | 1.0003 |
| 5 | Reanimator | 5.53% | 5.52% | 0.9975 |
| 5 | BUG Delver | 5.53% | 5.52% | 0.9975 |
| 5 | Sneak and Show | 5.53% | 5.35% | 0.9669 |
| 8 | Death and Taxes | 5.32% | 5.31% | 0.9981 |
| 9 | Elves | 5.11% | 4.81% | 0.9424 |
| 10 | Miracles | 4.89% | 5.28% | 1.0788 |
| 11 | Esper Stoneblade | 4.26% | 4.24% | 0.9953 |
| 11 | UR Delver | 4.26% | 4.00% | 0.9393 |
| 13 | ANT | 3.40% | 3.43% | 1.0076 |
| 14 | Belcher | 2.77% | 3.02% | 1.0927 |
| 15 | Goblins | 2.55% | 3.06% | 1.1994 |
| 16 | Lands | 2.34% | 2.01% | 0.8581 |
| 16 | Mono-red Painter | 2.34% | 2.18% | 0.9303 |
| 18 | Shardless BUG | 2.13% | 2.15% | 1.0093 |
| 19 | Junk Depths | 1.49% | 1.38% | 0.9279 |
| 20 | Deadguy Ale | 1.28% | 1.53% | 1.1994 |
| 20 | Explorer Pod | 1.28% | 1.01% | 0.7944 |
| 22 | Food Chain | 1.06% | 1.39% | 1.3084 |
| 23 | Mono-Green 12 Post | 0.85% | 1.11% | 1.3084 |
| 23 | Infect | 0.85% | 0.99% | 1.1682 |
| 23 | Jund Depths | 0.85% | 0.72% | 0.8411 |
| 26 | Stax | 0.64% | 0.57% | 0.8879 |
| 26 | Dark Maverick | 0.64% | 0.72% | 1.1215 |
| 28 | MUD | 0.43% | 0.44% | 1.0280 |
| 28 | Omni-Tell | 0.43% | 0.36% | 0.8411 |
| 28 | High Tide | 0.43% | 0.44% | 1.0280 |
| 28 | BUG Control | 0.43% | 0.56% | 1.3084 |
| 28 | TES | 0.43% | 0.36% | 0.8411 |
| 28 | Four-Color Loam | 0.43% | 0.34% | 0.7944 |
| 28 | Jund | 0.43% | 0.54% | 1.2617 |
| 28 | Burn | 0.43% | 0.36% | 0.8411 |
| 28 | Manaless Dredge | 0.43% | 0.56% | 1.3084 |
I think the big surprise here, is the resurgence of Jund. Not only is it number two on the list, but it’s been trending upwards in recent weeks, based on the time-weighted score being higher than the K-score. Also, there is a lone non-Punishing Jund all the way near the bottom, but it plays a very similar game to Jund, so you can add that to the shard’s total (I actually almost considered grouping the two together, but decided to save it for the second chart, below). Another interesting twist is that Reanimator has been enjoying as much time in the limelight as previous combo-darling, Sneak and Show. Completely unsurprising is seeing spots one, three, and five occupied by various flavors of Delver, but what are you gonna do, right? When WotC prints an evasive 3/2 in Magic’s best color, people are going to play it in decks and have a reasonable level of success with it. This is not a difficult concept to grasp. Oh, whoops, almost missed 11. That’s also a Delver archetype. Let’s see what this looks like from a more macro-archetype perspective:
| Archetype | K-Score | T-Score | T/K | |
| 1 | Delver Tempo | 28.72% | 27.26% | 0.9491 |
| 2 | Stoneblade | 10.00% | 9.98% | 0.9982 |
| 3 | Aether Vial Aggro | 7.87% | 8.37% | 1.0634 |
| 4 | Jund | 7.02% | 7.81% | 1.1130 |
| 4 | Other | 7.02% | 7.49% | 1.0663 |
| 6 | Graveyard Combo | 5.96% | 6.07% | 1.0197 |
| 6 | Show and Tell Combo | 5.96% | 5.71% | 0.9579 |
| 8 | Elves | 5.11% | 4.81% | 0.9424 |
| 9 | Miracles | 4.89% | 5.28% | 1.0788 |
| 10 | Lands | 4.68% | 4.11% | 0.8772 |
| 11 | Storm Combo | 4.26% | 4.23% | 0.9930 |
| 12 | Belcher | 2.77% | 3.02% | 1.0927 |
| 13 | Painter | 2.34% | 2.18% | 0.9303 |
| 14 | Shardless BUG | 2.13% | 2.15% | 1.0093 |
| 15 | Deadguy Ale | 1.28% | 1.53% | 1.1994 |
Wow, we are really living in a fair-deck format, right now. None of the top four macro archetypes will have you dead by turn five (outside of a Piledriver nutdraw from Goblins). For all the talk of [casthaven]True-Name Nemesis[/casthaven] ruining the format, it seems the fair decks have found ways to adapt, outside of playing your own True-Name. Again, Graveyard Combo has pulled to neck-and-neck with [casthaven]Show and Tell[/casthaven] Combo. Miracles is trending slightly upward, partially due to an increase in popularity from a strong Grand Prix showing (btw, we’re not looking at GP Paris results, here), and partially what seems like a regional popularity on the west coast due to many disciples of Lossett (I have no idea, really, but I did notice that there were a higher-than-usual number of players running almost exactly Joe’s list during the recent west coast Opens). Speaking of Miracles, I’ve been seeing some interesting new versions gaining popularity, like the Thopter-Sword variant that was championed by BBD.
Now for something new I decided to add. Let’s take a look at some of the spicier lists that caught my eye from last season’s top 16s. Most of these are coming from that “Other” category that we have tied with Jund at number four on our macro-archetypes table.
Explorer Pod
By David Gleicher
Result: 10th Place at StarCityGames.com Legacy Open on 1/5/2014
An interesting take on NicFit! This deck takes Modern powerhouse, [casthaven]Birthing Pod[/casthaven], and finds a good home for it in Legacy. Oh, you also get to play with this totally busted card called [casthaven]Recurring Nighmare[/casthaven]. If you’ve never gotten to cast this card before, you should give this a try, or at least try drafting it in cube, because it’s hella fun.
Stax
By Scott Muir
15th Place at StarCityGames.com Legacy Open on 1/19/2014
| Creatures (2) 2 Peacekeeper Planeswalkers (2) 2 Elspeth, Knight-Errant | Lands (26) 1 Ancient Den 4 Plains 4 Ancient Tomb 3 City of Traitors 4 Mishra’s Factory 4 Wasteland 4 Flagstones of Trokair 2 The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale Spells (30) 3 Chalice of the Void 3 Crucible Of Worlds 4 Mox Diamond 4 Smokestack 3 Trinisphere 3 Humility 2 Moat 3 Oblivion Ring 1 Enlightened Tutor 4 Armageddon Sideboard (15) 1 Chalice of the Void 1 Grafdigger’s Cage 1 Helm of Obedience 1 Null Rod 1 Pithing Needle 1 Phyrexian Revoker 2 Spellskite 1 Peacekeeper 3 Rest in Peace 2 Enlightened Tutor 1 Catastrophe |
This might be the trolliest deck in all of the format, if you’re into that sort of thing. Bonus: this build doesn’t force you to buy [casthaven]Ravages of War[/casthaven].. but those Tabernacles.
BUG Control
by Phimus Pan
1st Place at StarCityGames.com Legacy Open on 3/23/2014
| Creatures (12) 3 Baleful Strix 4 Deathrite Shaman 4 True-Name Nemesis 1 Vendilion Clique Planeswalkers (6) 3 Jace, the Mind Sculptor 3 Liliana of the Veil | Lands (23) 1 Bayou 3 Creeping Tar Pit 3 Misty Rainforest 3 Polluted Delta 2 Tropical Island 4 Underground Sea 4 Verdant Catacombs 3 Wasteland Spells (19) 3 Abrupt Decay 4 Brainstorm 2 Dismember 3 Force of Will 2 Inquisition of Kozilek 1 Maelstrom Pulse 4 Thoughtseize Sideboard (15) 1 Grafdigger’s Cage 2 Phyrexian Revoker 1 Dread of Night 1 Force of Will 2 Golgari Charm 3 Spell Pierce 1 Surgical Extraction 1 Umezawa’s Jitte 2 Hymn to Tourach 1 Marsh Casualties |
I’m sold on any deck that plays three apiece of Jace and Lily. For a time, I was trying to make BUG control work on MODO, but it looks like Phinus went in a completely different direction than I took, and achieved great results. I was trying to use a Loam engine to grind value. I also used zero creatures to try to maximize the effectiveness of [casthaven]Innocent Blood[/casthaven]. Phinus is more into just using Deathrite to accelerate into Planeswalkers and True-Names to protect his own ‘walkers while pressuring the opposition. I like it. I like it a lot!
Mono-Green 12-post
By John Kassari
3rd Place at StarCityGames.com Legacy Open on 3/23/2014
While this isn’t super-wacky, it’s certainly a bit different than the run-of-the-mill UG 12-post decks that we’re used to seeing, so I figured I’d bring it to your attention. [casthaven]Into the North[/casthaven] for [casthaven]Dark Depths[/casthaven] is a nice touch.
Food Chain
By Jonathan Job
4th Place at StarCityGames.com Legacy Open on 3/23/2014
| Creatures (22) 4 Shardless Agent 1 Deathrite Shaman 4 Misthollow Griffin 4 Noble Hierarch 2 Tidespout Tyrant 2 Wall of Blossoms 1 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn 2 Vendilion Clique 2 Venser, Shaper Savant | Lands (21) 3 Forest 4 Island 4 Misty Rainforest 1 Scalding Tarn 4 Tropical Island 1 Underground Sea 3 Verdant Catacombs 1 Karakas Spells (17) 4 Food Chain 1 Sylvan Library 4 Brainstorm 4 Force of Will 1 Misdirection 3 Manipulate Fate Sideboard (15) 2 Grafdigger’s Cage 2 Null Rod 2 Phyrexian Revoker 4 Obstinate Baloth 1 Misdirection 4 Submerge |
Was everyone in this one SCG event playing some crazy brew?! Three “alternative” archetypes in the top four. Even the one Delver deck in the top four is UR, the hipster Delver that dares to be different and play two colors and basic lands. But to understand what’s happening, here, [casthaven]Food Chain[/casthaven] and [casthaven]Misthollow Griffin[/casthaven] give you infinite mana. That lets you do things like cast Emrakul. [casthaven]Tidespout Tyrant[/casthaven] also works nicely with that combo, since you have infinite bounce. [casthaven]Manipulate Fate[/casthaven] serves as a triple [casthaven]Demonic Tutor[/casthaven] for your Griffins, and it lets you draw a card on top of that! I’ve seen this deck a bit on MODO around mid-January, though versions I’ve seen also ran cards like [casthaven]Fierce Empath[/casthaven], [casthaven]Consecrated Sphinx[/casthaven] (I think Tidespout is a better choice), and [casthaven]Mulldrifter[/casthaven] (which is just busted with [casthaven]Food Chain[/casthaven]).
UWr Miracles
By Brian Braun-Duin
5th Place at StarCityGames.com Legacy Open on 3/2/2014
| Creatures (5) 3 Stoneforge Mystic 2 Vendilion Clique Planeswalkers (3) 3 Jace, the Mind Sculptor | Lands (22) 4 Island 2 Plains 2 Arid Mesa 4 Flooded Strand 3 Scalding Tarn 3 Tundra 2 Volcanic Island 1 Academy Ruins 1 Karakas Spells (30) 1 Batterskull 4 Sensei’s Divining Top 1 Sword of the Meek 2 Thopter Foundry 1 Blood Moon 3 Counterbalance 1 Humility 4 Brainstorm 1 Counterspell 1 Enlightened Tutor 4 Force of Will 3 Swords to Plowshares 1 Preordain 3 Terminus Sideboard (15) 1 Engineered Explosives 1 Pithing Needle 1 Sword of Feast and Famine 1 Ethersworn Canonist 1 Detention Sphere 2 Rest in Peace 1 Enlightened Tutor 3 Pyroblast 2 Swan Song 1 Swords to Plowshares 1 Wear |
Here’s that BBD version of Miracles I was talking about, earlier. There’s a lot going on. Stoneblade package. Thopter-Sword, which Stoneblade helps set up. Maindeck [casthaven]Blood Moon[/casthaven]. Maindeck [casthaven]Humility[/casthaven]. Lots of ways to say, “Fuck you, I win.”
Infect
By Tom Ross
4th Place at StarCityGames.com Legacy Open on 3/2/2014
| Creatures (12) 4 Blighted Agent 4 Glistener Elf 4 Noble Hierarch | Lands (21) 1 Forest 4 Inkmoth Nexus 3 Misty Rainforest 4 Tropical Island 3 Verdant Catacombs 1 Wasteland 2 Wooded Foothills 3 Pendelhaven Spells (28) 1 Berserk 4 Brainstorm 2 Crop Rotation 2 Daze 3 Force of Will 4 Invigorate 1 Might of Old Krosa 1 Nature’s Claim 1 Spell Pierce 1 Stifle 4 Vines of Vastwood 2 Gitaxian Probe 2 Ponder Sideboard (15) 1 Relic of Progenitus 2 Necropede 1 Viridian Corrupter 1 Sylvan Library 1 Berserk 1 Dismember 1 Dispel 1 Misdirection 3 Nature’s Claim 1 Submerge 1 Swan Song 1 Bojuka Bog |
This isn’t a new archetype or anything, but it’s nice to remind people that things like this exist, every now and then.
Last but not Least
Ok, I guess this is the least, since it didn’t actually top 16. But whatever, this deck is actually really sweet.
Alex Ledbetter
36th Place at StarCityGames.com Legacy Open on 3/16/2014
Aluren
| Creatures (22) 4 Baleful Strix 1 Parasitic Strix 3 Shardless Agent 1 Cavern Harpy 1 Coiling Oracle 4 Deathrite Shaman 2 Dream Stalker 1 Eternal Witness 4 Imperial Recruiter 1 Sedraxis Alchemist | Lands (20) 2 Forest 1 Island 1 Swamp 1 Bayou 4 Misty Rainforest 2 Polluted Delta 1 Savannah 1 Taiga 2 Tropical Island 1 Underground Sea 4 Verdant Catacombs Spells (18) 4 Aluren 4 Brainstorm 3 Intuition 4 Cabal Therapy 3 Thoughtseize Sideboard (15) 1 Harmonic Sliver 1 Peacekeeper 2 Carpet of Flowers 3 Abrupt Decay 3 Force of Will 1 Intuition 1 Thoughtseize 3 Toxic Deluge |