Welcome to the first quarterly installment of my breakdown of the Legacy metagame (based on data gathered from Star City Games’ Legacy Open Series). With the final Open of the first invitational season in the books, I figure that this is as good a time as any to reflect on what the meta looks like, and quarterly seems like a meaningful amount of time to wait between these types of articles, so expect the next meta report in June/July. For those unfamiliar with my methodology, here are links to other articles where I explained this exercise. Below is a copy paste of the “cliff-notes” version:

“We will assign each archetype two points for finishing 9th-16th, three points for 5th-8th, four points for 3rd-4th, five points for 2nd, and six points for 1st, then average out the data from the eight 32 events to arrive at what the expected metagame should look like.”

The method described above was developed by Frank Karsten for analyzing the “winner’s circle” metagame. These results are meant to show the likeliness of seeing a given archetype at the top tables. I don’t want to mislead anyone into thinking that they can safely forget about the plethora of decks that exist in this great format and assume that they will be playing against nothing but Delver and Show and Tell decks, because it is not uncommon to see some pretty wacky shit in the first couple of rounds (or the later rounds if you have fallen below x-3).

In addition to Karsten’s method, I added a time-weighted version. From my original article:

“I decided to set up my model to give 100% weight to the most recent event (3/23/2014) and a 50% weight to the furthest back event (12/15/2013), with a linear rate of decay.”

For our data, I aggregated the results from each SCG Legacy Open during the time period we’re looking at, as well as the Legacy Championships (for which I only have top eight data) and the Grand Prix.

Ok, let’s see the results!

Archetype K-Score T-Score T/K
1 UWR Delver 13.19% 12.76% 0.9670
2 Punishing Jund 6.60% 7.28% 1.1034
3 RUG Delver 5.74% 4.99% 0.8688
3 Esper Deathblade 5.74% 5.75% 1.0003
5 Reanimator 5.53% 5.52% 0.9975
5 BUG Delver 5.53% 5.52% 0.9975
5 Sneak and Show 5.53% 5.35% 0.9669
8 Death and Taxes 5.32% 5.31% 0.9981
9 Elves 5.11% 4.81% 0.9424
10 Miracles 4.89% 5.28% 1.0788
11 Esper Stoneblade 4.26% 4.24% 0.9953
11 UR Delver 4.26% 4.00% 0.9393
13 ANT 3.40% 3.43% 1.0076
14 Belcher 2.77% 3.02% 1.0927
15 Goblins 2.55% 3.06% 1.1994
16 Lands 2.34% 2.01% 0.8581
16 Mono-red Painter 2.34% 2.18% 0.9303
18 Shardless BUG 2.13% 2.15% 1.0093
19 Junk Depths 1.49% 1.38% 0.9279
20 Deadguy Ale 1.28% 1.53% 1.1994
20 Explorer Pod 1.28% 1.01% 0.7944
22 Food Chain 1.06% 1.39% 1.3084
23 Mono-Green 12 Post 0.85% 1.11% 1.3084
23 Infect 0.85% 0.99% 1.1682
23 Jund Depths 0.85% 0.72% 0.8411
26 Stax 0.64% 0.57% 0.8879
26 Dark Maverick 0.64% 0.72% 1.1215
28 MUD 0.43% 0.44% 1.0280
28 Omni-Tell 0.43% 0.36% 0.8411
28 High Tide 0.43% 0.44% 1.0280
28 BUG Control 0.43% 0.56% 1.3084
28 TES 0.43% 0.36% 0.8411
28 Four-Color Loam 0.43% 0.34% 0.7944
28 Jund 0.43% 0.54% 1.2617
28 Burn 0.43% 0.36% 0.8411
28 Manaless Dredge 0.43% 0.56% 1.3084

I think the big surprise here, is the resurgence of Jund. Not only is it number two on the list, but it’s been trending upwards in recent weeks, based on the time-weighted score being higher than the K-score. Also, there is a lone non-Punishing Jund all the way near the bottom, but it plays a very similar game to Jund, so you can add that to the shard’s total (I actually almost considered grouping the two together, but decided to save it for the second chart, below). Another interesting twist is that Reanimator has been enjoying as much time in the limelight as previous combo-darling, Sneak and Show. Completely unsurprising is seeing spots one, three, and five occupied by various flavors of Delver, but what are you gonna do, right? When WotC prints an evasive 3/2 in Magic’s best color, people are going to play it in decks and have a reasonable level of success with it. This is not a difficult concept to grasp. Oh, whoops, almost missed 11. That’s also a Delver archetype. Let’s see what this looks like from a more macro-archetype perspective:

Archetype K-Score T-Score T/K
1 Delver Tempo 28.72% 27.26% 0.9491
2 Stoneblade 10.00% 9.98% 0.9982
3 Aether Vial Aggro 7.87% 8.37% 1.0634
4 Jund 7.02% 7.81% 1.1130
4 Other 7.02% 7.49% 1.0663
6 Graveyard Combo 5.96% 6.07% 1.0197
6 Show and Tell Combo 5.96% 5.71% 0.9579
8 Elves 5.11% 4.81% 0.9424
9 Miracles 4.89% 5.28% 1.0788
10 Lands 4.68% 4.11% 0.8772
11 Storm Combo 4.26% 4.23% 0.9930
12 Belcher 2.77% 3.02% 1.0927
13 Painter 2.34% 2.18% 0.9303
14 Shardless BUG 2.13% 2.15% 1.0093
15 Deadguy Ale 1.28% 1.53% 1.1994

Wow, we are really living in a fair-deck format, right now. None of the top four macro archetypes will have you dead by turn five (outside of a Piledriver nutdraw from Goblins). For all the talk of True-Name Nemesis ruining the format, it seems the fair decks have found ways to adapt, outside of playing your own True-Name. Again, Graveyard Combo has pulled to neck-and-neck with Show and Tell Combo. Miracles is trending slightly upward, partially due to an increase in popularity from a strong Grand Prix showing (btw, we’re not looking at GP Paris results, here), and partially what seems like a regional popularity on the west coast due to many disciples of Lossett (I have no idea, really, but I did notice that there were a higher-than-usual number of players running almost exactly Joe’s list during the recent west coast Opens). Speaking of Miracles, I’ve been seeing some interesting new versions gaining popularity, like the Thopter-Sword variant that was championed by BBD.

Now for something new I decided to add. Let’s take a look at some of the spicier lists that caught my eye from last season’s top 16s. Most of these are coming from that “Other” category that we have tied with Jund at number four on our macro-archetypes table.

Explorer Pod

By David Gleicher

Result: 10th Place at StarCityGames.com Legacy Open on 1/5/2014

Creatures (23)
 Baleful Strix
 Deathrite Shaman
 Eternal Witness
 Glen Elendra Archmage
 Grave Titan
 Kitchen Finks
 Murderous Redcap
 Phantasmal Image
 Scavenging Ooze
 Shriekmaw
 Sower of Temptation
 Thragtusk
 Veteran Explorer
 Viridian Shaman
Lands (21)
 Forest
 Island
 Swamp
 Bayou
 Misty Rainforest
 Polluted Delta
 Tropical Island
 Underground Sea
 Verdant Catacombs

Spells (17)
 Birthing Pod
 Pernicious Deed
 Recurring Nightmare
 Abrupt Decay
 Brainstorm
 Cabal Therapy
 Green Sun’s Zenith

Sideboard (15)
 Acidic Slime
 Aetherling
 Fleshbag Marauder
 Glen Elendra Archmage
 Riptide Pilferer
 Pernicious Deed
 Envelop
 Force of Will
 Umezawa’s Jitte

An interesting take on NicFit! This deck takes Modern powerhouse, Birthing Pod, and finds a good home for it in Legacy. Oh, you also get to play with this totally busted card called Recurring Nighmare. If you’ve never gotten to cast this card before, you should give this a try, or at least try drafting it in cube, because it’s hella fun.

Stax

By Scott Muir

15th Place at StarCityGames.com Legacy Open on 1/19/2014

Creatures (2)
Peacekeeper

Planeswalkers (2)
Elspeth, Knight-Errant
Lands (26)
Ancient Den
Plains
Ancient Tomb
City of Traitors
Mishra’s Factory
Wasteland
Flagstones of Trokair
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

Spells (30)
Chalice of the Void
Crucible Of Worlds
Mox Diamond
Smokestack
Trinisphere
Humility
Moat
Oblivion Ring
Enlightened Tutor
Armageddon

Sideboard (15)
Chalice of the Void
Grafdigger’s Cage
Helm of Obedience
Null Rod
Pithing Needle
Phyrexian Revoker
Spellskite
Peacekeeper
Rest in Peace
Enlightened Tutor
Catastrophe

This might be the trolliest deck in all of the format, if you’re into that sort of thing. Bonus: this build doesn’t force you to buy Ravages of War.. but those Tabernacles.

BUG Control

by Phimus Pan

1st Place at StarCityGames.com Legacy Open on 3/23/2014

Creatures (12)
Baleful Strix
Deathrite Shaman
True-Name Nemesis
Vendilion Clique

Planeswalkers (6)
Jace, the Mind Sculptor
Liliana of the Veil
Lands (23)
Bayou
Creeping Tar Pit
Misty Rainforest
Polluted Delta
Tropical Island
Underground Sea
Verdant Catacombs
Wasteland

Spells (19)
Abrupt Decay
Brainstorm
Dismember
Force of Will
Inquisition of Kozilek
Maelstrom Pulse
Thoughtseize

Sideboard (15)
Grafdigger’s Cage
Phyrexian Revoker
Dread of Night
Force of Will
Golgari Charm
Spell Pierce
Surgical Extraction
Umezawa’s Jitte
Hymn to Tourach
Marsh Casualties

I’m sold on any deck that plays three apiece of Jace and Lily. For a time, I was trying to make BUG control work on MODO, but it looks like Phinus went in a completely different direction than I took, and achieved great results. I was trying to use a Loam engine to grind value. I also used zero creatures to try to maximize the effectiveness of Innocent Blood. Phinus is more into just using Deathrite to accelerate into Planeswalkers and True-Names to protect his own ‘walkers while pressuring the opposition. I like it. I like it a lot!

Mono-Green 12-post

By John Kassari

3rd Place at StarCityGames.com Legacy Open on 3/23/2014

Creatures (10)
Oracle of Mul Daya
Primeval Titan
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
Kozilek, Butcher of Truth
Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre
Dryad Arbor
Lands (24)
Snow-Covered Forest
Bojuka Bog
Cavern of Souls
Cloudpost
Glimmerpost
Thespian’s Stage
Vesuva
Windswept Heath
Wooded Foothills
Eye of Ugin
Karakas
Dark Depths

Spells (26)
Expedition Map
Oblivion Stone
Pithing Needle
Sensei’s Divining Top
Crop Rotation
Moment’s Peace
Green Sun’s Zenith
Into the North
All Is Dust

Sideboard (15)
Elephant Grass
Leyline of Sanctity
Rest in Peace
Sacred Ground
Gaddock Teeg
Creeping Corrosion
Glacial Chasm
Savannah
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

While this isn’t super-wacky, it’s certainly a bit different than the run-of-the-mill UG 12-post decks that we’re used to seeing, so I figured I’d bring it to your attention. Into the North for Dark Depths is a nice touch.

Food Chain

By Jonathan Job

4th Place at StarCityGames.com Legacy Open on 3/23/2014

Creatures (22)
Shardless Agent
Deathrite Shaman
Misthollow Griffin
Noble Hierarch
Tidespout Tyrant
Wall of Blossoms
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
Vendilion Clique
Venser, Shaper Savant
Lands (21)
Forest
Island
Misty Rainforest
Scalding Tarn
Tropical Island
Underground Sea
Verdant Catacombs
Karakas

Spells (17)
Food Chain
Sylvan Library
Brainstorm
Force of Will
Misdirection
Manipulate Fate

Sideboard (15)
Grafdigger’s Cage
Null Rod
Phyrexian Revoker
Obstinate Baloth
Misdirection
Submerge

Was everyone in this one SCG event playing some crazy brew?! Three “alternative” archetypes in the top four. Even the one Delver deck in the top four is UR, the hipster Delver that dares to be different and play two colors and basic lands. But to understand what’s happening, here, Food Chain and Misthollow Griffin give you infinite mana. That lets you do things like cast Emrakul. Tidespout Tyrant also works nicely with that combo, since you have infinite bounce. Manipulate Fate serves as a triple Demonic Tutor for your Griffins, and it lets you draw a card on top of that! I’ve seen this deck a bit on MODO around mid-January, though versions I’ve seen also ran cards like Fierce Empath, Consecrated Sphinx (I think Tidespout is a better choice), and Mulldrifter (which is just busted with Food Chain).

UWr Miracles

By Brian Braun-Duin

5th Place at StarCityGames.com Legacy Open on 3/2/2014

Creatures (5)
Stoneforge Mystic
Vendilion Clique

Planeswalkers (3)
Jace, the Mind Sculptor
Lands (22)
Island
Plains
Arid Mesa
Flooded Strand
Scalding Tarn
Tundra
Volcanic Island
Academy Ruins
Karakas

Spells (30)
Batterskull
Sensei’s Divining Top
Sword of the Meek
Thopter Foundry
Blood Moon
Counterbalance
Humility
Brainstorm
Counterspell
Enlightened Tutor
Force of Will
Swords to Plowshares
Preordain
Terminus

Sideboard (15)
Engineered Explosives
Pithing Needle
Sword of Feast and Famine
Ethersworn Canonist
Detention Sphere
Rest in Peace
Enlightened Tutor
Pyroblast
Swan Song
Swords to Plowshares
Wear

Here’s that BBD version of Miracles I was talking about, earlier. There’s a lot going on. Stoneblade package. Thopter-Sword, which Stoneblade helps set up. Maindeck Blood Moon. Maindeck Humility. Lots of ways to say, “Fuck you, I win.”

Infect

By Tom Ross

4th Place at StarCityGames.com Legacy Open on 3/2/2014

Creatures (12)
Blighted Agent
Glistener Elf
Noble Hierarch
Lands (21)
Forest
Inkmoth Nexus
Misty Rainforest
Tropical Island
Verdant Catacombs
Wasteland
Wooded Foothills
Pendelhaven

Spells (28)
Berserk
Brainstorm
Crop Rotation
Daze
Force of Will
Invigorate
Might of Old Krosa
Nature’s Claim
Spell Pierce
Stifle
Vines of Vastwood
Gitaxian Probe
Ponder

Sideboard (15)
Relic of Progenitus
Necropede
Viridian Corrupter
Sylvan Library
Berserk
Dismember
Dispel
Misdirection
Nature’s Claim
Submerge
Swan Song
Bojuka Bog

This isn’t a new archetype or anything, but it’s nice to remind people that things like this exist, every now and then.

Last but not Least

Ok, I guess this is the least, since it didn’t actually top 16. But whatever, this deck is actually really sweet.

Alex Ledbetter

36th Place at StarCityGames.com Legacy Open on 3/16/2014

Aluren

Creatures (22)
Baleful Strix
Parasitic Strix
Shardless Agent
Cavern Harpy
Coiling Oracle
Deathrite Shaman
Dream Stalker
Eternal Witness
Imperial Recruiter
Sedraxis Alchemist
Lands (20)
Forest
Island
Swamp
Bayou
Misty Rainforest
Polluted Delta
Savannah
Taiga
Tropical Island
Underground Sea
Verdant Catacombs

Spells (18)
Aluren
Brainstorm
Intuition
Cabal Therapy
Thoughtseize

Sideboard (15)
Harmonic Sliver
Peacekeeper
Carpet of Flowers
Abrupt Decay
Force of Will
Intuition
Thoughtseize
Toxic Deluge

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