The final season of 2014 has been in the books for a couple weeks, now, so I thought it might be a good time to to crunch some numbers and reflect on the trends in the (North American) Legacy metagame! And for those of you who caught my mid-season analysis at GP NJ, and noticed the absence of the section at the end where I mention the decklists that tickled my fancy, don’t worry, it’s back! If you’ve read these articles before, feel free to skip the indented explanation of my methodology, below (here are links to older articles where I explained this exercise):

“We will assign each archetype two points for finishing 9th-16th, three points for 5th-8th, four points for 3rd-4th, five points for 2nd, and six points for 1st, then average out the data from the events to arrive at what the expected metagame should look like.”

The method described above was developed by Frank Karsten for analyzing the “winner’s circle” metagame. These results are meant to show the likeliness of seeing a given archetype at the top tables. I don’t want to mislead anyone into thinking that they can safely forget about the plethora of decks that exist in this great format and assume that they will be playing against nothing but Delver and Show and Tell decks, because it is not uncommon to see some pretty wacky shit in the first couple of rounds (or the later rounds if you have fallen below x-3).

For our data, I aggregated the results from each SCG Legacy Open during the time period we’re looking at.

How’d the various archetypes fare, in the final quarter of 2014?

Archetype K-Score Last Season K Change T-Score T/K
1 Elves 12.77% 5.20% 7.57% 11.23% 0.8794
2 Miracles 12.11% 8.51% 3.60% 12.12% 1.0006
3 UR Delver 11.29% 0.47% 10.82% 12.59% 1.1151
4 Death And Taxes 5.07% 4.73% 0.34% 4.33% 0.8541
5 Reanimator 4.75% 0.95% 3.80% 4.53% 0.9552
6 Jeskai Stoneblade 4.58% 0.00% 4.58% 5.74% 1.2524
7 Sultai Delver 4.42% 12.06% -7.64% 4.41% 0.9971
8 Infect 3.60% 1.18% 2.42% 3.15% 0.8736
9 Temur Delver 3.60% 9.46% -5.86% 3.92% 1.0888
10 Ad Nauseam Tendrils 3.60% 0.71% 2.89% 4.13% 1.1473
11 Sneak and Show 3.44% 4.26% -0.82% 3.48% 1.0128
12 Lands 3.27% 1.18% 2.09% 3.43% 1.0483
13 Dredge 3.11% 2.13% 0.98% 3.14% 1.0106
14 Jeskai Delver 3.11% 9.93% -6.82% 2.92% 0.9401
15 Shardless Sultai 1.64% 7.80% -6.16% 1.55% 0.9461
16 Esper Stoneblade 1.47% 2.60% -1.13% 0.94% 0.6414
17 Esper Deathblade 1.47% 4.96% -3.49% 1.27% 0.8619
18 Burn 1.47% 5.20% -3.73% 1.57% 1.0690
19 Maverick 1.47% 0.47% 1.00% 1.77% 1.2026
20 Omni-Tell 1.31% 1.42% -0.11% 1.20% 0.9199
21 Imperial Painter 1.31% 0.95% 0.36% 0.89% 0.6815
22 Grixis Delver 0.82% 0.47% 0.35% 0.84% 1.0303
23 Mono-Red Moggcatcher 0.82% 0.00% 0.82% 0.91% 1.1144
24 12-post 0.65% 0.94% -0.29% 0.82% 1.2528
25 Tin Fins 0.65% 0.00% 0.65% 0.80% 1.2227
26 Manaless Dredge 0.65% 0.47% 0.18% 0.52% 0.8018
27 Merfolk 0.65% 0.95% -0.30% 0.66% 1.0122
28 Shardless Bant 0.65% 0.00% 0.65% 0.64% 0.9822
29 Slivers 0.65% 0.00% 0.65% 0.68% 1.0423
30 UR Painter 0.49% 0.00% 0.49% 0.51% 1.0423
31 MUD 0.49% 1.18% -0.69% 0.60% 1.2141
32 High Tide 0.49% 0.47% 0.02% 0.33% 0.6815
33 Abzan Depths 0.49% 0.00% 0.49% 0.39% 0.8018
34 Goblins 0.49% 0.47% 0.02% 0.54% 1.1024
35 UR Landstill 0.49% 0.00% 0.49% 0.60% 1.2141
36 UW Stoneblade 0.33% 0.00% 0.33% 0.38% 1.1626
37 Jund 0.33% 3.07% -2.74% 0.26% 0.8018
38 Charbelcher 0.33% 1.42% -1.09% 0.22% 0.6815
39 Jeskai Ascendancy Combo 0.33% 0.00% 0.33% 0.46% 1.4031
40 UW Counterbalance 0.33% 0.00% 0.33% 0.34% 1.0423
41 Bant Stoneblade 0.33% 0.95% -0.62% 0.36% 1.1024
42 Mono-Black Pox 0.33% 0.00% 0.33% 0.38% 1.1626
43 Grixis Control 0.33% 0.00% 0.33% 0.40% 1.2141

Whoaaaaaa! Is this an historic moment? A non-blue deck, Elves, in first?! Elves was well-represented last season, no doubt, but it is worth pointing out that if we chop off the first four weeks worth of data (the pre-Cruise meta), it falls to third, and if we chop off one more week to account for the metagame adapting to Cruise, it falls to fifth, with UR Delver, Miracles, Jeskai Stoneblade, and Ad Nauseam Tendrils ahead of it. Because the metagame shifted so hard following the release of Khans, it might be helpful to look at the T/K column. The archetypes with a T/K lower than 1 did most of their damage before khans came out, and vice versa. As you can see, Elves, D&T, Reanimator (a bit surprising), and Esperblade (makes sense, when you consider how much delve weakened discard spells) all saw their stock fall considerably after Khans. Miracles was ever-present in both metas. Meanwhile, UR Delver, Jeskai Stoneblade, and ANT (a good predator of the newer Delver lists) all saw an uptick in their results.

Here’s what the data looks like when we condense some of these archetypes:

Archetype K-Score Last Season K Change T-Score T/K
1 Delver Tempo 23.24% 32.39% -9.15% 24.69% 1.0622
2 Elves 12.77% 5.20% 7.57% 11.23% 0.8794
3 Miracles 12.44% 8.51% 3.93% 12.46% 1.0017
4 Graveyard Combo 9.17% 3.55% 5.62% 9.00% 0.9822
5 Stoneblade 8.84% 8.51% 0.33% 9.34% 1.0566
6 Aether Vial Aggro 6.87% 5.67% 1.20% 6.22% 0.9048
7 Show and Tell Combo 4.75% 6.15% -1.40% 4.69% 0.9872
8 Storm Combo 4.42% 2.13% 2.29% 4.69% 1.0611
9 Lands 3.76% 1.18% 2.58% 3.83% 1.0161
10 Infect 3.60% 1.18% 2.42% 3.15% 0.8736
11 Other 3.44% 3.31% 0.13% 4.02% 1.1707
12 Red Prison Stompy 2.13% 1.90% 0.23% 1.80% 0.8480
13 Sultai Midrange 1.64% 8.51% -6.87% 1.55% 0.9461
14 Maverick 1.47% 0.47% 1.00% 1.77% 1.2026
15 Burn 1.47% 5.20% -3.73% 1.57% 1.0690

I guess seeing Delver Tempo on top is nothing new, these days, right? The macro archetype did, however, see a significant drop-off from the usual third of the metagame that it occupies. Why is that, when UR Delver was the big winner of the Treasure Cruise Bonanza? Because the other Delver decks have somewhat faded away, in the wake of Delve. Temur Delver either loses Nimble Mongoose, or forgoes Cruising; Sultai Delver is trying to play discard spells in a world where discard has gotten much worse; Jeskai Delver is outclassed by the new breed of Jeskai Blade lists that run Pyromancer.

Off-Kilter Lists For Off-Kilter Pilots

Back when I did a mid-season metagame analysis, in advance of GP NJ, I know at least a few people were disappointed by the absence of this section. Fear not, though, because I’ve got a whole bunch of interesting-looking lists from the last season that are perfectly capable of putting up a solid finish, even if they’re not what you typically see at the top tables.

Jeskai Ascendancy Combo

by Brad Nelson
Result: 14th Place at StarCityGames.com Legacy Open on 12/7/2014

Creatures (8)
Fatestitcher
Young Pyromancer
Lands (18)
Arid Mesa
Faerie Conclave
Flooded Strand
Scalding Tarn
Tundra
Volcanic Island

Spells (34)
Jeskai Ascendancy
Brainstorm
Force of Will
Lightning Bolt
Mental Note
Spell Pierce
Thought Scour
Faithless Looting
Gitaxian Probe
Treasure Cruise

Sideboard (15)
Pithing Needle
Meddling Mage
Sulfur Elemental
Hydroblast
Pyroblast
Surgical Extraction
Wear
Faerie Conclave

Rich Shay deserves a lot of the credit, on this one, as well, though to be fair, ChannelFireball’s Modern deck from Worlds was the real blueprint for this list, when Fatestitcher was “discovered.” The Modern list is already crazy good, so if you just make the obvious Legacy upgrades (Path -> Plow, Remand -> Force, Shocks -> Cantrips that are not Brainstorm/Ponder -> Brainstorm/Ponder), and then find room for Pyromancers, you have a solid list. The Pyromancers let you kill without fully comboing off; if you land a turn two Pyromancer, get a couple tokens on turn three, and then an Ascendency on turn four, you’re likely going to just win right there. A friend of mine who has played the deck at a couple Monday Night Legacy events has attested that most of the time, you just win over the course of a few turns with Peezy, rather than comboing into a 20/21 Fatestitcher.

I think it’s worth noting that it might be possible to make this deck faster, and more “all-in.” Notably absent are Lotus Petals, which allow you to go off faster, and they do trigger Ascendency (I feel like we always have to point out that Ascendency says “non creature,” rather than “instant or sorcery,” as we’re more used to the latter templating on these types of effects). If we’re on the Petals plan, then I think Peezy is the cut, since he’s going to have less synergy in the deck.

Sultai Delver

by Chris Fornace
Result: 7th Place at StarCityGames.com Legacy Open on 12/7/2014

Creatures (12)
Death’s Shadow
Deathrite Shaman
Delver of Secrets
Scavenging Ooze
Lands (18)
Island
Swamp
Breeding Pool
Creeping Tar Pit
Flooded Strand
Misty Rainforest
Overgrown Tomb
Polluted Delta
Tropical Island
Underground Sea
Verdant Catacombs
Watery Grave

Spells (30)
Sylvan Library
Abrupt Decay
Brainstorm
Force of Will
Golgari Charm
Spell Pierce
Sultai Charm
Gitaxian Probe
Ponder
Thoughtseize
Treasure Cruise

Sideboard (15)
Pithing Needle
Notion Thief
Scavenging Ooze
Engineered Plague
Flusterstorm
Golgari Charm
Surgical Extraction
Hymn to Tourach
Maelstrom Pulse
Toxic Deluge

“This is boring Tim.. why are you showing us a Sultai Delver list? I know they haven’t shown up as much, since Khans, but it’s a well-documented archetype that has put up plenty of great results over the last year, and everyone already knows about….”

Death’s Shadow???

This ain’t your daddy’s Team America! While this features a lot of the hallmark qualities of a Delver deck—a dozen cheap threats, a boatload of cantrips (and the boat, itself), free countermagic, and cheap interaction—Death’s Shadow gives this archetype a fresh look. With fetches, shocks, Thoughtseize, and Probes aplenty, it’s probably pretty easy to surprise your opponent out of nowhere by immediately adding 4+ power to a Shadow, before attacking. Just be careful when doing this against an opponent capable of burning you out.

One thing I particularly enjoy about this list, is that it looks like a fairly attainable “entry point” into the format for someone new to Legacy, as far as price is concerned. Because you’re running Death’s Shadow, it gives you a strategic excuse for playing shocklands (assuming that “spend less money” isn’t a strategic excuse). Shaving three duals and the Tarmogoyfs from the list probably shaves off over half the price!

Shardless Sultai

by James Nguyen
Result: 6th Place at StarCityGames.com Legacy Open on 12/7/2014

Creatures (14)
Baleful Strix
Shardless Agent
Deathrite Shaman
Scavenging Ooze
Tarmogoyf

Planeswalkers (3)
Jace, the Mind Sculptor
Liliana of the Veil
Lands (22)
Forest
Swamp
Bayou
Creeping Tar Pit
Misty Rainforest
Polluted Delta
Tropical Island
Underground Sea
Verdant Catacombs
Wasteland

Spells (21)
Abrupt Decay
Brainstorm
Dig Through Time
Disfigure
Force of Will
Ancestral Vision
Thoughtseize
Toxic Deluge
Treasure Cruise

Sideboard (15)
Grafdigger’s Cage
Nihil Spellbomb
Pithing Needle
Notion Thief
Disfigure
Flusterstorm
Force of Will
Golgari Charm
Spell Pierce
Umezawa’s Jitte
Hymn to Tourach
Massacre
Thoughtseize

Shardless is dead; long live Shardless! There was a lot of talk about the death of Shardless, since the immediate impact of the new delve spells in Legacy, but I feel that it is slightly exaggerated. Don’t get me wrong, Shardless isn’t going to carve out the same size of the metagame that it used to, but you could still do worse than casting Gray Ogres with Ancestral Recall stapled to them. James decided that he wasn’t going to completely ignore the powerful new delve spells, however, shaving a copy of Ancestral Vision, and playing one each of Dig and Cruise.

Grixis Control

by Eli Kassis
Result: 14th Place at Grand Prix on 11/15/2014

Creatures

1 Baleful Strix
1 Notion Thief
2 Snapcaster Mage
4 Young Pyromancer
Planeswalkers

2 Dack Fayden
Lands

1 Island
4 Flooded Strand
1 Misty Rainforest
4 Polluted Delta
3 Underground Sea
4 Volcanic Island
Spells

1 Nihil Spellbomb
4 Brainstorm
1 Counterspell
4 Force of Will
4 Lightning Bolt
2 Pyroblast
3 Cabal Therapy
1 Forked Bolt
4 Gitaxian Probe
4 Ponder
1 Sudden Demise
4 Treasure Cruise
Sideboard

1 Grafdigger’s Cage
1 Null Rod
1 Pithing Needle
1 Tsabo’s Web
1 Zuran Orb
1 True-Name Nemesis
1 Dread of Night
1 Electrickery
2 Hydroblast
1 Pyroblast
1 Recoil
1 Smash to Smithereens
1 Surgical Extraction
1 Innocent Blood[/d]

This list got a lot of attention, in the wake of GP NJ, and, I mean.. why not? It plays Dack freakin’ Fayden! It also has the Pyromancer-Therapy combo, which is one of my favorite things to do with Peezy. He did a nice writeup on the deck, after the event, which can be found here. One of the major changes that he suggests is to cut Notion Thief (much to my chagrin; I love the “Thieves combo” of Dack and Notion Thief) for True-Name Nemesis, which makes sense, since four-drops are hard to cast, and the combo is probably a bit on the “win-more” side, for this deck.

UW Stoneblade

by Eric Rill
Result: 10th Place at StarCityGames.com Legacy Open on 11/9/2014

Creatures (8)
Stoneforge Mystic
True-Name Nemesis
Vendilion Clique

Planeswalkers (1)
Jace, the Mind Sculptor
Lands (22)
10 Island
Plains
Flooded Strand
Marsh Flats
Polluted Delta
Tundra

Spells (29)
Batterskull
Helm of Obedience
Sensei’s Divining Top
Vedalken Shackles
Counterbalance
Detention Sphere
Energy Field
Rest in Peace
Brainstorm
Enlightened Tutor
Force of Will
Swords to Plowshares
Umezawa’s Jitte

Sideboard (15)
Pithing Needle
Ethersworn Canonist
Meddling Mage
Back to Basics
Humility
Luminarch Ascension
Disenchant
Flusterstorm
Path to Exile
Jace, the Mind Sculptor
Terminus

There are a lot of different branches on the family tree of Miracles. Some variants play two Karakas to go with lots of legends. Some like to load up on cantrips for greater consistency. Others play alternate roads to victory, like the RIP-Helm-E.Field plan. And then sometimes, we see Stoneforges, whether in the main or board, as a way to close games out faster and attack from a different angle. If the European-style lists that max out on Ponders and play less actual “business” spells is a no-frills Miracle deck, then I suppose that Eric Rill’s list is an all-the-frills Miracle deck. In fact, there are so many frills, here, that there was no room left for the actual Miracles (but don’t worry, there are three copies of Terminus in the board).

Jeskai Stoneblade

Ben Friedman
4th Place at StarCityGames.com Legacy Open on 11/23/2014

Creatures (9)
Snapcaster Mage
Stoneforge Mystic
True-Name Nemesis
Lands (19)
Island
Plains
Arid Mesa
Flooded Strand
Misty Rainforest
Scalding Tarn
Tundra
Volcanic Island

Spells (32)
Batterskull
Sensei’s Divining Top
Counterbalance
Brainstorm
Counterspell
Dig Through Time
Flusterstorm
Force of Will
Lightning Bolt
Swords to Plowshares
Umezawa’s Jitte
Ponder
Treasure Cruise

Sideboard (15)
Sensei’s Divining Top
Sword of Feast and Famine
Containment Priest
Counterspell
Flusterstorm
Pyroblast
Red Elemental Blast
Wear
Council’s Judgment
Supreme Verdict

I’m not going to say too much on this list that Friedman piloted to a top four finish, other than the fact that it might be the natural evolution of the previous deck from Rill. It’s sort of a more stream-lined version of Rill’s list, shaving three lands and some of the more cutesy stuff like RIP-Helm-E.Field for more cantrips, delve spells, and the color red.

Mono-Black Pox

by Cary Austin
Result: 13th Place at StarCityGames.com Legacy Open on 11/9/2014

Creatures (1)
Nether Spirit

Planeswalkers (4)
Liliana of the Veil
Lands (25)
13 Swamp
Mishra’s Factory
Wasteland
Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth

Spells (30)
Crucible Of Worlds
Cursed Scroll
Dark Ritual
Surgical Extraction
Night of Souls’ Betrayal
Hymn to Tourach
Innocent Blood
Inquisition of Kozilek
Sinkhole
Smallpox
Toxic Deluge

Sideboard (15)
Ensnaring Bridge
Pithing Needle
Trinisphere
Engineered Plague
Leyline of the Void
Damnation
Toxic Deluge

Fuck this deck. No, seriously, if you’ve ever played against a Pox deck that is successfully “doing its thing,” you know that it is one of the most miserable strategies to play against (says the dude who normally plays Miracles). You lose all your lands and/or cards in hand and feel great sadness as Mishra’s Factory slowly pecks away at you. Pilot beware: while ruining your opponent’s day might be appealing, decks like this are capable of spitting out clunky draws, that will cost you games, and sometimes matches, over the course of a long tournament. Personally, I think the deck could use a Nether Void, but maybe Cary decided that he was better off without it.

Mono-Red Moggcatcher

by Marshall Arthurs
6th Place at StarCityGames.com Legacy Open on 11/9/2014

Creatures (21)
Goblin Rabblemaster
Imperial Recruiter
Magus of the Moon
Moggcatcher
Murderous Redcap
Siege-Gang Commander
Simian Spirit Guide
Tuktuk Scrapper
Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker

Planeswalkers (3)
Koth of the Hammer
Lands (20)
Mountain
Ancient Tomb
Cavern of Souls
City of Traitors

Spells (16)
Chalice of the Void
Chrome Mox
Trinisphere
Blood Moon

Sideboard (15)
Ensnaring Bridge
Spellskite
Stingscourger
Pyrokinesis
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
Jaya Ballard, Task Mage
Gemstone Caverns

This deck can be a nightmare to play against! I was recently paired in the last round of my store’s Monday Night Legacy against it, and when my opponent offered to split, I snap-took that deal; we would play it out, for the fun and practice, anyways, and I won, but regardless, it’s not a matchup I like to face. The deck is setup to have a very high probability of presenting a “Fuck you, you lose,” type of opening, with eight Sol Lands, eight zero-mana rampers (Mox, Spirit Guide), and a whopping 16 spells that are capable of preventing the person on the other side of the table from playing Magic (3-ball, Moon, Magus, Chalice). I’m not sure what that maths out to, but it wouldn’t shock me if it’s over 50% to drop one of its 16 lock-pieces on turn one, if we’re willing to mull to 6. Once the opponent is locked out, victory is achieved via any random red haymaker in the 3-5 mana range. In this case, the finishers are Koth, or a goblin toolbox that’s facilitated by Moggcatcher. I don’t see it in this version, but some lists use the Moggcatcher angle to go on a land-destruction lockdown plan, via Goblin Settler and Kiki-Jiki.

Slivers

by Blake Patraw
Result: 4th Place at StarCityGames.com Legacy Open on 10/26/2014

Creatures (24)
Crystalline Sliver
Galerider Sliver
Hibernation Sliver
Muscle Sliver
Predatory Sliver
Sinew Sliver
Winged Sliver
Lands (20)
Island
Cavern of Souls
Flooded Strand
Misty Rainforest
Mutavault
Sliver Hive
Tropical Island
Tundra
Underground Sea

Spells (17)
Aether Vial
Relic of Progenitus
Brainstorm
Daze
Force of Will

Sideboard (15)
Relic of Progenitus
Darkheart Sliver
Harmonic Sliver
Sower of Temptation
Flusterstorm
Thalia, Guardian of Thraben

Not only is this list hilarious, but it also manages to somewhat stay on the budgety side, playing a paltry three dual lands. This pretty much plays out like a Merfolk deck, except instead of islandwalk, the non +1/+1 effects that your lords bestow on your team are flying, hexproof, and sweeper-insurance (see: Hibernation Sliver). Also, what the what?? Sliver Hive is a Legacy card?? It’s a crazy world, indeed!

What Does The New Open Series Structure Mean?

I realize that with the new structure for the Open Series, I might have to tweak my methodology. Previously, all events were weighted equally, and while Opens may fluctuate a bit in size from week to week or city to city, they were close enough that I felt that it was fine to treat them all the same. That’s obviously going to change this year, as I plan to switch to a weighted system. To assign greater significance to the Grand Prix-style Opens, I’m going to have to weigh those events higher, either by using some sort of system to weigh events proportionally, based on their size, or changing how points are assigned (maybe do something like use the amount of Open Points assigned). I haven’t exactly made up my mind yet how I’m going to do this, but I’ll pick something that makes sense, once I have the data. If I can find clean data for top 16s (most sites I’ve seen only do top 8s) for other major events, I might also start incorporating that, as many readers have asked me in the past if I had any plans to look at some of the European events. It’s not that I don’t respect or care about the Euro metagame, but just that by always using SCG data, I have a clean and consistent input.

Speaking of clean, consistent data, I feel like I need to be more consistent with macro-archetypes. Here’s an example: one season, we might see a plethora of fast combo decks, and I’ll call ‘Belcher and Oops, All Spells something to the effect of “Glass Cannon, Turn One Combo,” and another season, there might be no ‘Belcher, but a decent amount of Dredge and Reanimator, so I’ll put Oops under “Graveyard Combo”; then, the next season, maybe there is no Oops and a single ‘Belcher, so I’ll categorize it as “Other.” You can surely see how that makes things complicated when tracking season-to-season trends. Before putting out the 2015Q1 results, I’m going to hammer down some hard-set categorizations, whether it’s on my own, or if I do a “round table” discussion with a few other Legacy minds, whom I respect, to sort this out. (hey, the round table idea might make for an interesting podcast?) Is a Bant Midrange deck a Stoneblade deck with green as the third color, or a Maverick deck with blue? Is Abzan Depths an offshoot of Dark Maverick or Lands? Or none of the above? Maybe we need to really condense the macro-archetypes down to five or six categories. All of these pressing questions that approximately three of you were wondering about will be answered!

The other major change, and this is one that has garnered a lot of demand, is that I will also be adding Modern metagame analysis. That’s right, because Modern has almost the same exact set of events (one less Open; one more 5k) as Legacy, and because many people are interested in this data, I’m going to provide that on a quarterly basis, alongside my Legacy data. The only difference is that I’m just going to give you the numbers, without too much commentary, as it would probably be in everyone’s best interests to not listen to me ramble about formats that I don’t really know much about.

Next week, Fate Reforged cards are legal to add to your Eternal decks. Tune in to find out which ones I think will make a splash in Modern, Legacy, and Vintage!

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